Urea sales for May-2025

Staff Report:

Islamabad: Pakistan Urea sales in May-2025 is expected to clock in at 418k tons, up 5% YoY compared to 400k tons in May-2024. Similarly, Urea sales is expected to recover by 67% MoM, due to onset of Kharif season.

This will take 5M2025 offtake to 1.76mn tons, down 31% YoY compared to 2.55mn tons in 5M2024, mainly due to weak farm economics and water shortage.

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Topline said that this is likely to take closing inventory of Urea to be around 1.36mn tons in May-2025, up from 1.1mn tons in Apr-2025. Inventory level of urea is likely to be highest in 96 months.

Company wise, Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) has the highest inventory of 619k tons followed by Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC) of  359k tons, and FATIMA of 319k tons.

Among the companies, EFERT is expected to record increase of 85% YoY in urea sales to 142k tons in May-2025 due to low base effect amid plant turnaround and disparity in urea prices. To highlight, EFERT announced a price discount of Rs100-140 per bag starting Jan-2025 and discount is continuing. While, FFC has also started discount of Rs40/bag effective from May 2025.

FFC is expected to record a Urea sales of 207k tons (down 28% YoY) followed by FATIMA of 54K tons (up 3.8x YoY) in May-2025.

Total DAP sales during May-2025 are anticipated to be around 94k tons, up 132% YoY and down 1% MoM. In 5M2025, total DAP offtake is anticipated to clock in at 399k ton, down 20% YoY.

Company wise data suggests, FFC and EFERT are likely to record sales of 68k tons and 14k tons respectively, followed by others of 12k tons in May-2025.

Closing inventory of DAP is likely to be around 252k tons in May-2025 compared to 203k tons in Apr-2025 and 219k tons in May-2024.