Steel Sector to Benefit from Anti-Dumping Duty on Galvalume

Staff Report

Karachi:  In a notice dated June 28 2025, National Tariff Commission (NTC) has extended the existing anti-dumping duty (ADD) of up to 40.47% on imports of Galvalume Steel Coils/Sheets from China. This ADD has been extended till Feb 08, 2027 and came in effect on date on notice.

To recall, NTC received application from domestic producers of Galvanized coils on Aug 24, 2024 that the importers are circumventing the ADD by switching over to a slightly different product of similar category namely Galvalume Steel Coils/Sheets.

This development is expected to have a material positive impact on listed flat steel sector players International Steels (ISL) and Aisha Steels (ASL). Almost 3 years ago, domestic industry used to serve 60% of the local demand while 40% was imported, however, currently this is other way around, imports are catering 60% of the demand.

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According to channel checks, Galvalume import size is estimated at 220k tons per annum in 10/11MFY25, annualizing it to 250k. Of this 50-70k is actual demand according to flat steel industry experts and the rest of 180-200k tons is duty circumvention and dumping.

Galvalume is a substitute for locally manufactured Galvanized Coils and is utilized in roofing, wall panels, and other building components, as well as in home appliances, and automotive parts like exhaust pipes and fuel tanks.

We believe, with this duty in place now, the local industry can get its share back. This positive development is in addition to other positives in flat steel sector such as imposition of 10% Sales Tax on Ex FATA/PATA regions and removal of regulatory duty of 5% on HRC which is a main raw material for flat steel sector,” Topline said.

It earlier assumed 308/341k tons sales for ISL in FY26/27, and with this development, we increase our volumetric sales assumption for ISL to 368/401k tons, increase of 19%/18%.

As a result of this, we increase our earnings forecast for ISL from earlier Rs9.3/11.6 for FY26/27 to Rs13.1/16.4, up 41/40%.

Topline has maintained its BUY stance on ISL as company is trading FY26 and FY27 PE of 6.5x, and 5.2x, respectively.