Oil Prices on September 1 2025

Petrol, diesel, kerosene and light diesel expected to see slight price cuts in ex-depot sales

Petrol, diesel, kerosene and light diesel oil (LDO) prices in Pakistan are projected to fall slightly from September 1, 2025, according to updated ex-refinery and ex-depot estimates. The adjustment follows international oil price movements and domestic pricing mechanisms.

Data shows that petrol (PMG) ex-refinery price is expected to decline from Rs159.35 per liter on August 16 to Rs158.92 per liter from September 1, reflecting a decrease of Rs0.43, or 0.3 percent. High-speed diesel (HSD) is projected to see a sharper cut of Rs2.87 per liter, dropping from Rs170.37 to Rs167.49, a reduction of 1.7 percent. Kerosene is expected to decline by Rs1.57 to Rs148.31 per liter, while light diesel oil is forecast to fall by Rs2.61, bringing the new rate to Rs137.79.Maintaining Oil Prices to hit oil industry’s cash flow

At the ex-depot sale level, petrol prices are set to slip marginally by Rs0.61, from Rs264.61 to Rs264.00 per liter. Diesel is projected to drop by Rs3.13, from Rs272.99 to Rs269.86, while kerosene is expected to decline by Rs1.57, to Rs176.70. Light diesel oil is forecast to fall by Rs2.61, to Rs159.55.

The basis of local pricing includes the Pakistan State Oil (PSO) import parity formula, incorporating Platts prices, premiums, inland freight equalization margin (IFEM), and exchange rate adjustments. Current premiums stand at $6.37 per barrel for petrol and $3.20 per barrel for diesel. The IFEM adds Rs8.05 to petrol and Rs6.20 to diesel.

The expected adjustment comes at a time when international oil markets remain volatile, with Brent crude hovering in the mid-$70s to low $80s per barrel range through August 2025. Pakistan’s monthly fuel price revisions are tied to global oil price movements, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and import costs, as the country relies heavily on imported petroleum products.

This is not the first downward revision in recent months. Earlier cuts in June and July had brought slight relief to consumers after several months of steep increases driven by global oil supply constraints and currency depreciation. Compared to August 2024, when petrol was selling near Rs290 per liter, the latest projection indicates relative stability.

Market analysts suggest that while the latest adjustment offers limited relief, diesel’s sharper cut could benefit the transport and agriculture sectors, where fuel constitutes a significant portion of operational costs. Kerosene and light diesel, mainly used in remote and rural areas, will also see modest relief.

However, experts caution that price trends remain highly dependent on global crude markets, which have been sensitive to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ output decisions. Any fluctuations in the exchange rate could also alter final domestic prices.

Fuel pricing remains a politically sensitive issue in Pakistan, where periodic hikes often trigger public protests. The government continues to face pressure to strike a balance between passing on international price movements to consumers and managing inflationary pressures at home.

The next official price announcement will be confirmed by the Ministry of Finance, based on recommendations from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). Until then, these projections remain subject to final review of Platts rates and exchange adjustments.

If the downward revision holds, consumers in Pakistan may find slight respite in their monthly budgets from September 1, with petrol, diesel, kerosene and LDO expected to ease by up to Rs3.13 per liter.