ISLAMABAD:For the first week of Sep’24 (Base Case), SPI data shows:
• Expected CPI YoY: 7.3%, the lowest since Jan’21 (5.65%).
• Expected CPI MoM: -0.2%.
Key factors for the CPI decline:
• Food Index: -0.4% MoM (due to falling prices for wheat flour, chicken, and pulses).
• Transportation: -1.8% MoM (due to lower petroleum prices).
• Housing: -0.7% MoM (due to FCA adjustment).
A sensitivity analysis indicates that, with MoM variations of +/- 0.5% to 1.0%, the CPI for Sep’24 could range from 6.2% to 8.4% YoY.