Global mobile network data traffic projected to grow almost 200 percent between 2024 and the end of 2030

ISLAMABAD: 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are anticipated to be major priorities for communication service providers (CSPs) for the rest of the decade, as they implement new features aimed at offering value-driven services rather than just increasing data volumes. This insight is part of a comprehensive analysis in the November 2024 edition of the Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) Mobility Report, which extends the forecast period through to the end of 2030.

Although the growth rate of mobile network traffic data is slowing — projected at 21 percent year-on-year for 2024 — it is still expected to increase nearly threefold by the end of 2030 compared to current levels.GITEX Global 2024 begins in Dubai

The report highlights how early adopter service providers are already introducing value-based service models that focus on differentiated connectivity, such as guaranteed, uninterrupted high-performance connectivity when most needed, to open new avenues for revenue and growth. Case studies from T-Mobile in the U.S. and Elisa in Finland are also included.

Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks at Ericsson, stated: “Service differentiation and performance-driven opportunities are essential as our industry evolves. The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report features in-depth analysis, statistical insights, and customer use cases. The transition towards high-performing, programmable networks, supported by cloud infrastructure and openness, will allow service providers to offer and charge for services based on the value delivered, rather than just data volume. This report provides key insights into what our industry can achieve and the necessary steps to reach these goals.”

The report emphasizes the global potential for developing differentiated connectivity by pointing out that, outside of China, 5G mid-band technology has been deployed at only around 30 percent of sites worldwide.

Out of approximately 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, fewer than 20 percent are deploying 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA infrastructure is considered a vital catalyst for unlocking the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities.

It is expected that by the end of 2030, nearly 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions will be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.

Regarding global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are projected to carry about 80 percent of all mobile data by 2030, up from 34 percent by the end of 2024.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to gain traction globally, emerging as the second most common 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB). In four of the six regions, more than 80 percent of CSPs now offer FWA. The number of FWA providers offering speed-based tariff plans — with downlink and uplink data speeds similar to cable or fiber services — has grown from 30 percent to 43 percent over the past year.

Western Europe has seen rapid growth in FWA speed-based offerings, with 52 percent of CSPs in the region now providing them, compared to 32 percent a year ago. Europe alone accounts for 73 percent of all global 5G FWA launches in the past 12 months.

Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, nearly 80 percent are expected to be over 5G.

The report also discusses the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI), including Generative AI applications — already integrated into smartphones, laptops, smartwatches, and FWA products — on uplink and downlink network traffic, which could drive mobile traffic growth beyond current projections.

Additional statistics in the report include the forecast that global 5G subscriptions will reach nearly 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, making up 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscriptions are expected to surpass the number of 4G subscriptions globally by 2027.

The first 6G deployments are expected to take place in 2030, building on and expanding the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.